Industry online data show that in May the rotor compressor industry produced 19.7 million units, an increase of 15.19% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.64% from the previous period; sales of 2013.3 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.94%, a decrease of 2.92%. The monthly production and sales volume continued to decline this month, but the year-on-year growth rate remained at the double-digit level. Inventory continued to digest, a 7.6% decrease compared to the previous quarter, but the rate of destocking gradually slowed. On the whole, the industry is still in a relatively full production and stocks continue to go into good conditions.
The 2018 cold year will be full of rotor compressors and a year of prosperous production and sales.
According to the industry's online monitoring and scheduling data, ten compressor companies totaled 1976,000 units in June, a year-on-year increase of 16.5% year-on-year, and a 1.8% decrease from the previous month's output in May. It can be seen that the output of rotor compressors has been in production since April. In March, it declined slightly in March. The year-on-year growth in production performance also continued to narrow over the same period last year, but the year-on-year growth rate remained above 10%. From air-conditioning point of view, after the US air-conditioning production in June significantly adjusted, the overall air-conditioning industry in June was 15.48 million units, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year, an increase of 1.5% from the previous month. After the downstream air-conditioning enterprises began to consciously control production in April and May, some air-conditioning companies in June adjusted their strategy, increased shipments during the terminal sales season, seized market resources, and the row-by-line growth rate returned to double-digit levels. In addition, the compressor companies reported that the current domestic sales orders are in good condition and production has maintained the peak season production levels. The overall situation is relatively optimistic. The year-on-year growth of rotor compressor sales during the cold-year period from August to May was as high as 18.62%. Based on the current situation, it can be seen that the 2018 cold year will be full of rotor compressors and a booming production and sales year.
2019 cold year alert inventory crisis
According to the law of operation of the industry, the compressors began to store inventories in the second half of the calendar year. The above chart shows that the inventory of rotor compressors began to rise in the cold year of 2017, and inventory in November reached the record high of 9.257 million units. However, at the same time, the downstream air-conditioning market was basically cleaned up at the end of July 2016, and the demand for supplemental inventory surged. In addition, the prosperity of the real estate market, the demand for replacement of air conditioners broke out, and a wide range of factors, such as large-scale, high-temperature and long-lasting high-temperature weather in 2017, were superimposed. As a result, the air conditioner market continued to record a record high and the upstream compressor inventory was quickly digested. In the end of 17 cold years, the compressor inventory has dropped to the historical level.
Since February of this year, the rotary compressor industry has continued to digest inventory. Although inventory in May declined by 2.28 million units from February inventory, the inventory of compressors was still much higher than the same period of the previous year. So whether the inventory of compressors in the second half of the year can be digested as quickly as in the cold year of 17? In terms of downstream air-conditioning inventory, as of the end of April, the total inventory of the air-conditioning industry monitored by the industry was 39.41 million units. According to the average consumption of the peak season, it will take approximately 5 months to digest, and the overall level is high. In addition, the current real estate industry is still in the destocking stage, and it is expected that the real estate market will remain stable for a long period of time. The probability of a fiery upward trend in the 2016 real estate market is extremely low again. At present, under the declining trend of end-user consumption, some air-conditioning companies still intend to increase the growth rate of shipments, and there is no shortage of overdraft effects. In contrast, it is very difficult for the 19 cold years to quickly digest the inventory of compressors in 17 cold years. Therefore, compressor companies still need to be cautious, control production, and be wary of inventory crisis.
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